Just follow your passion! Have you ever heard this advice? Believe or not this is not only bad advice, this might be one of the worst pieces of advice you can follow. To some extent you should do something you love doing, but if you are a master at anything, emotions will follow up.
Passion is a tricky thing and every gambler would be able to write a book on this topic. How did we get in here, when the topic should be about the experts? Sorry, but before we speak about the Betting Experts, we have to share a word about the other side of the pole. The so-called problem gambler.
How would you characterize a problem gambler?
Short answer: The urge to play. The urge is incredibly strong and out of your power. You can not control your action, you are a slave. A slave to something as stupid as a slot machine.
Just imagine landing on this planet and looking at somebody being addicted to “Spinning lemons”. How ridiculous!? Not trying to put the problem down or make fun of that. It’s here, it’s big and it’s getting bigger. We get back to the problem gamblers later on, now just a longer version of the answer from our title question.
Problem gamblers are driven by their emotions. Their brain gives them emotional rewards even if they are losing and that is one of the key problems.
On the other side we are finally here introducing…
Betting Experts and their drives
You can not really call the drive of a Betting Expert a drive. The power driving an expert is a pure brain power. Sure they get happy when they manage to win, but who is not happy when getting a paycheck? The big difference is also in the “games they play”. While the problem gamblers go for the games of pure chance such as roulette or slot machines, the experts go for sports betting and blackjack.
Sidenote on blackjack: We are not talking about the online casino electronic blackjack, but live dealer blackjack where you see the cards
Sports betting as the main field for Betting Experts
Market margin of the bookmakers is very close to 7%. This means that if punters place bets around 1 million, the bookie keeps 70 000 out of it. Your goal is to find the markets where the bookie did a wrong probability calculation. Yes, it happens quite often!
But first things first. Do you have any idea what the odds stand for? Let’s say you see a football match Liverpool vs Manchester United. You see the following decimal odds
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.01 | 3.8 | 3.59 |
If you have no idea what is behind those numbers, I have some bad news for you.
“You can be almost 100% sure to be losing in long term betting”
Without giving you any more depression, we are going to reveal that the odds stand for a probability of the result. The odds can be expressed in percentage, in this case the table would look like this:
| 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.01 | 3.8 | 3.59 |
| 49.75% | 26.32% | 27.86% |
If you now summarize the %, you will learn that the final % is not 100%. Yes, because the bookmaker is keeping profit for him. To learn more about the betting background, we highly recommend you to study the betting academy, where the very basics of sports betting are being explained step by step. For free! Give it only a few days and you will see better results.
Back to the table. Try to answer the following question. How did the bookie get those numbers? How can you tell that Liverpool is going to win in 49.75% matches like the one with Red Devils. Take a few minutes and meditate on this.
There is one rule of mother nature that can be applied to betting. The rule goes something like this:
“The ones who are closer to knowing the true reality of things have better survival chances“
To simplify it: The ones who know the truth will do better in any field of life and it looks like the big majority of bookmakers are doing fine in predicting the probability of the results.
There is however space for the Betting Expert. The following Ted talk is telling you about the instincts of a Betting Expert.
One thing the betting expert can do with high accuracy is telling the real probability of events. Then all you have to do is compare the odds with those of the bookmaker. Now imagine you are a football betting expert. To really make money on football betting you would have to find the gap in hundreds of events.
This is not only time consuming, but also impossible from the knowledge part of the story. You might be able to deeply know a few teams within the league or even all of them, but not many football leagues. This is the time when football predictions today must step into the story.
How can you be sure the football predictions are accurate?
That is the best question to ask. There are many picks and expert predictions out there, the only thing is: They are not working. Simply try any other forebet service out there and you will learn your lesson the hard way. Is there any solution to it? Yes, you simply show the markets where you are doing fine.
The leagues and markets are generally divided into 4 groups:
- High predictability
- Good predictability
- Medium predictability
- Poor predictability
The ones with a high predictability are the ones that are retrospectively proven to be “money making”. If you bet on those, you might expect decent revenues.
Similar categories have also odds creating services such as Betradar or other companies who provide odds to a big number of bookmakers. The only reason between them and Rowdie.co.uk is that the bookmakers from an easy to understand reason do not show them.
The important part of your job is to think again. Do you see a value? Think again if it is real. There might be some injury of a key player or a bad relationship between the head coach and the rest of the team. This is what makes a big impact on the final score. If you did the research and are confident enough, go ahead and place a small bet (just pennies) to see if it is working.
Introducing Blackjack – the casino nightmare
The house edge of slot machines is between 3-6%, roulette 2,78-5.6%, sportsbook 3-10%. Can you guess the house edge of blackjack? The long term percentage is only 0.5% and that is really not much. For a casino to make 5000£, the full million needs to exchange hands.
Even a small shift in probabilities makes a big impact in the outcome. Have you ever heard of counting cards? This method is what scares the casinos the most. No the robbers, not hackers but people with brain power. The so-called betting experts can shift the 0.5% house edge to over 1,1% advantage in their favor and make slightly over 150£ in one hour.
Counting cards is however a big thing exceeding the possibilities and focus of this article so we will only touch it. There are hundreds of ways to count cards, but most of them are based on a Hi-Lo System. Each card has assigned a value.
- Cards 2-6 have assigned 1
- Cards 7-9 have assigned 0
- Cards 10-Ace have assigned -1
The core idea behind the card counting is that everytime a high card has been dealt, there are fewer left on the deck, which is bad for the player and vice versa. This means that the card counting is giving the player valuable information if he should stake high or quit. Look for more about counting cards on wikipedia.
As for now, we offered a full solution for all the sports betting experts and in the next article sometimes in the future we will put our focus on blackjack and counting cards.
